Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Omar
15L.OMAR AoI: Eastern Caribbean No, not the system northest of the Islands, but the one east of it, where the disorganised showers are. Some models predict development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 8 October 2008 (UTC) :It's drifted way south, and up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:58, 9 October 2008 (UTC) 98L.INVEST NRL's calling this 98L now. --Patteroast 20:35, 11 October 2008 (UTC) :NHC now has 98L at medium risk of development. --Patteroast 00:19, 12 October 2008 (UTC) ::And now up on the NHC's danger graphic. Their language towards something developing is getting stronger. I have a feeling we'll be saying hello to the first Tropical Storm Omar sooner rather than later. --Patteroast 23:45, 12 October 2008 (UTC) :::Other than possible effects in Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic and Virgin Islands, this is likely to be a fish storm, pulled up into the hurricane graveyard along with Nana although both GFDL and HWRF are predicting a cat. 2. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:07, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::::If this thing goes over Hispaniola, it's finished. If it makes it into the Atlantic, the conditions don't look too bad (for October). It might bypass that trough, which will be Nana's dimise and have a little better prognosis. The models essentially either make it a hurricane or don't develop it at all. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:03, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC has it at high risk now, and they say "THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW." --Patteroast 04:17, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::::::"SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON." Also, GFDL and HWRF runs seem to be showing a category 3 hurricane in the vicinity of Puerto Rico. --Patteroast 12:15, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :::::::NRL's showing something called 15L.FIFTEEN and something called 99L.INVEST... when you click on 15L, you get pictures of 98L. I'm sure this'll be sorted on in the next hour or so, but I have to go do things other than refresh hurricane tracking sites, now. :P --Patteroast 13:49, 13 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression 15 Okay, so I snuck back to check on it after all. Confirmed by NHC, forecast makes it Omar soon, and a hurricane after it passes Puerto Rico. --Patteroast 14:46, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :Predicted to make Hurricane Omar eventually. When it does, we'll get to 15-7-3, meaning that for the first time since 2005, NOAA won't have over-predicted either the numbers of storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes (Nana puts them in the green for number of storms, and Ike took care of majors long ago, but they still have 6 'canes to a predicted 7-10).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:50, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::Shear's going to be a little steep for a hurricane. We'll see how it pans out. The models may be overdoing it a bit. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:01, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :::Both GFDL and HWRF predicting a cat. 3! This is going to be interesting to watch, but likely to be a fish except for Puerto Rico, eastern Dominican Republic, perhaps Newfoundland, perhaps Europe, and just maybe Bermuda. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:48, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::::I don't trust SHIPS, period - it never gets a storm past 100 knots that's not already a 2. Given that, I wouldn't be too surprised if it did become major number four. No hurricane is rather unlikely, giving less bias to the SHIPS - when the GFDL and HWRF consistently point to a major hurricane, it's darn unlikely that the storm will peak at 60 knots (they've hardly ever been that poor). The only example I can think of is last year's Gabby (Fay wouldn't be fair, since that was initially forecasted to stay over the water, where it certainly would have been a hurricane). To top that off, the GFDL and the HWRF have been very good this year - wouldn't make sense to dive off of the deep end all of a sudden. Squarethecircle 20:21, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :::::GFDL predicting a cat. 3 landfall on Dominican rep.! Close to TS now. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:24, 14 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Omar Oh, hello... We've got Omar. Upgraded at the latest advisory. Oh, and it's showing early signs of Rapid Intensification... Not looking promising at the moment for Puerto Rico - Salak 15:11, 14 October 2008 (UTC) :Whoa! It did rapidly intensify! Omar is now almost a hurricane. If the 11 pm forecast advisory shows Omar reaching major hurricane strength, I'd believe it. This is a very healthy storm and all that shear that had existed over the Caribbean has essentially evaporated. Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands could have serious problem. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:43, 14 October 2008 (UTC) ::NHC is predicting a cat. 2 landfall on the Virgin Islands, and they haven't seen a storm that severe since Lenny of 1999. SHIPS is predicting a cat. 3, while GFDL and HWRF are more conservative. However, given the intensification, NHC says that forecast intensity may have to be adjusted upwards when the 18z models initialize it more strongly, which means a cat. 3 hitting the Leeward Islands is possible, and you'd have a Lenny-like scenario. The Atlantic is waking up again. I'm adjusting my prediction back up to 19 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and 4 retired names. By the way, methane clathrates are melting! 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:02, 14 October 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Omar Official--SpacaB 03:22, 15 October 2008 (UTC) :The storm has shrunk significantly since yesterday and the eye isn't very distinct but outflow is still very good so Omar still could become a very scary storm. It has continued to strengthen today. We'll see how much it strengthens. It looks like the Leeward Islands are taking it seriously though. These things are nothing new to them. They should fare all right. It's looking a little less likely that Omar will become a major hurricane. There's a chance, but I don't think it will get that strong. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:02, 15 October 2008 (UTC) ::8 PM advisory puts Omar at a cat. 2 hurricane, with 105 mph/170 kph/90 kt winds. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit the Virgin Islands as cat. 3 now, rapid strengthening has started. Typical 2008 October? 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:11, 16 October 2008 (UTC) Major Hurricane Omar Now a category 3... Centre should pass east of the Virgin Islands in the next few hours, and near the Northern Leewards in the morning. - Salak 03:10, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :Well, Omar seems to have shoved my words right down my throat. Not good news for the Leeward Islands. This storm will be passing through those islands at the same intensity as Ivan when it plowed into the Gulf Coast (120 mph as of 1am EDT). This is a very powerful hurricane. Dr. Klotzbach's monthly forecast predicted an active October with four named storms and one major hurricane. That forecast came so very close to being dead on (and still could be since it's only Oct 16). It's downright creepy. The Madden-Julian Oscillation has curiously played a very active role this season. Right now, Anguilla, Antigua and the Virgin Islands (both US and British) stand to get the worst of it. I've been amazed before about the kind of punches they've been able to take. Omar's no Lenny. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:44, 16 October 2008 (UTC) ::The NHC notes, at 5, that the storm may have peaked at 115 knots and this may have been missed by the advisories (similar to Bertha). Right now, Omar is weakening, though extremely heavy thunderstorms are present through the Leeward islands. Omar is no Lenny - but I think, for a different reason: It's moving much faster. Omar is in and out of there as fast as possible. Lenny performed a tiny loop around St. Croix, causing very significant damage to that island. Also, the storm was some 20 knots less powerful, but a 115 knot storm around for 12 hour is more damaging than a 135 knot storm that zips right through (to clarify - it their intensities were switched (given that Omar was a 115 knot storm, which was supported by SFMR, FL winds, and T-Numbers, but of course was only so briefly), Lenny would do more damage, assuming both had hit St. Croix). Squarethecircle 11:23, 16 October 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Omar (Take 2) Back down to a Category 1 now... vertical shear and dry air are getting to it. - Salak 15:39, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :And did they ever get to it, wow! This storm just collapsed, similar to Opal in 1995 but probably even more so. Omar just fell apart. I think even 75 knots may have been a little generous. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 20:44, 16 October 2008 (UTC) ::The only thing even close to this is Lili, in fact, it's almost eerie - both went from a 4 to a 1 in what was essentially the same amount of time (a difference of less than three hours, Omar being faster). This storm weakened like a storm hitting land - regardless of how intense the shear is, over-water storms don't lose 40 knots in 7 hours - either they're too strong, or they're too weak (I think the sweet spot would be around 75 - 80 knots starting, and that's a long way from 115 knots). Right now, Omar is naked on visible, and on IR, well, it looks like a complete mess. Just going by the IR, you wouldn't be able to tell the thing was a tropical cyclone - kind of like this year's Ivan, only in a different sort of way (Ivan, at the time, looked like just a loose bundle of clouds, but after that, it happened kind of reverse from Omar). What sucks? It reached it's peak as it was passing through the areas that it would most affect - then weakened immediately after, as if to add insult to injury. Squarethecircle 21:16, 16 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Omar (2nd time) Down to a TS. Storm's Eye 14:43, 17 October 2008 (UTC) :Organising again... - Salak 15:44, 17 October 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Omar (Take 3) Now a hurricane again! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:39, 17 October 2008 (UTC) :Will Omar make his mind up? This, that, back to this again... :P - Salak 21:12, 17 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Omar Ok, THIS time he'll probably just slowly fade away. Promise. Squarethecircle 03:03, 18 October 2008 (UTC) :Finally, at the 1500 UTC advisory, Omar is now a remnant low devoid of deep convection. True, at 35 knots, it is a very vigorous remnant; however, the satellite images show that the storm is nothing but a few wisps of high altitude clouds. Contrary to what would have seemed to be likely, Omar has died a tropical death - transition is not even in the forecast. It is yet to be known whether Omar has any chance of being retired (though it seems quite unlikely), so goodbye, Omar - if you come back, try to take the not-insane route. (Note: On the subject of being strange, we witnessed a storm go the right way in the Caribbean, turn around, hit the Lesser Antilles after consistent and rapid intensification, then pretty much die - not for no reason, but perhaps for lack of a bad one). Squarethecircle 14:51, 18 October 2008 (UTC)